VerCalc
Taxes
Tax Refund Estimator
Federal • 2024/2025 • Withholding‑based

Tax Refund Estimator

Estimate your IRS refund (or amount owed) from expected income and federal withholding.

Inputs

Federal estimator. Your filing software may differ due to additional rules and credits.

Deductions & credits (simplified)

Estimated result

AGI (estimated)
$85,000
Taxable income
$70,000
Deduction used: $15,000
Federal tax (after non‑refundable credits)
$10,314
Before credits: $10,314
Withholding + refundable credits
$12,000
Refund / amount owed
$1,686
Estimated refund (federal only).

Good to know

Refund size depends heavily on withholding timing and credits. A “perfect” result for many people is close to $0 (no big refund, no bill).

Notes & tables

Federal tax brackets snapshot (2025 vs 2026)


Below is a quick “snapshot table” for Single / MFJ / HOH.


2025 (ordinary income brackets)

Rate
Single
Married Filing Jointly
Head of Household
10%
$0–$11,925
$0–$23,850
$0–$17,000
12%
$11,926–$48,475
$23,851–$96,950
$17,001–$64,850
22%
$48,476–$103,350
$96,951–$206,700
$64,851–$103,350
24%
$103,351–$197,300
$206,701–$394,600
$103,351–$197,300
32%
$197,301–$250,525
$394,601–$501,050
$197,301–$250,500
35%
$250,526–$626,350
$501,051–$751,600
$250,501–$626,350
37%
$626,351+
$751,601+
$626,351+

2026 (ordinary income brackets)

Rate
Single
Married Filing Jointly
Head of Household
10%
$0–$12,400
$0–$24,800
$0–$17,700
12%
$12,401–$50,400
$24,801–$100,800
$17,701–$67,450
22%
$50,401–$105,700
$100,801–$211,400
$67,451–$105,700
24%
$105,701–$201,775
$211,401–$403,550
$105,701–$201,775
32%
$201,776–$256,225
$403,551–$512,450
$201,776–$256,200
35%
$256,226–$640,600
$512,451–$768,700
$256,201–$640,600
37%
$640,601+
$768,701+
$640,601+

Standard deduction (2025 vs 2026)


Filing status
2025
2026
Single
$15,000
$16,100
Married Filing Jointly
$30,000
$32,200
Head of Household
$22,500
$24,150
Married Filing Separately
$15,000
$16,100

Inputs cheat‑sheet: where to find the numbers fast


Input
Where to find it
Hint
W‑2 wages
Pay stubs / expected W‑2 Box 1
Use year‑to‑date if close to year‑end
Federal withholding
Pay stubs / W‑2 Box 2
Add across jobs if multiple W‑2s
Other income
1099‑INT/NEC/K, side gigs
Use conservative estimate
Adjustments
IRA/HSA/student loan interest, etc.
If unsure, enter 0 and rerun later

What this calculator estimates (and what it doesn’t)


This tool estimates your federal refund (or amount owed) using:


•Expected income (W‑2 wages and other income)
•Federal withholding (from paychecks)
•A simplified deduction choice (standard or a single itemized total)
•Optional credits you enter (non‑refundable and refundable)

It does not model every IRS rule (state taxes, AMT, all credits/limitations). Use it as a planning tool and confirm final numbers in your filing software.


Quick table: refund vs owed (simple intuition)


Situation
Typical outcome
Why
Withholding > tax
Refund
You overpaid during the year
Withholding < tax
Owed
You underpaid during the year
Credits increase
Refund increases
Credits reduce tax (some are refundable)
Higher income
Refund may drop
More taxable income → higher tax

Why your refund changes year‑to‑year (even if your salary didn’t)


•Withholding changed (new W‑4 settings, job change, bonuses)
•Filing status changed (marriage, HOH eligibility)
•Credits changed (children aging out, new dependents, education)
•Deductions changed (mortgage interest, charitable giving, medical)

In practice, most “surprise” refunds/bills come from withholding changes or a new income stream (1099).


Refund timeline & common delays (high‑intent FAQ topic)


Situation
Typical impact
What to do
E‑file + direct deposit
Usually fastest
Double‑check routing/account
Paper filing
Slower
Avoid if possible
Mismatched W‑2/1099
Delays
Verify forms before filing
Identity verification
Delays
Respond to IRS letters promptly

End‑of‑year tip (high‑intent searches)


If you’re trying to avoid a surprise bill, compare:


•Your expected tax (this estimator)
•Your year‑to‑date withholding

Then adjust withholding on your next paycheck (W‑4) if needed.


Related calculators (internal linking)


•If you’re unsure about deductions: [Standard vs Itemized](/us/taxes/standard-vs-itemized-deductions)
•If you’re optimizing year‑end moves: [401(k) / IRA Tax Savings](/us/taxes/401k-ira-tax-savings)
•If you realized trades: [Capital Gains & Tax‑Loss Harvesting](/us/taxes/capital-gains-tax-loss-harvesting)
•If you have kids: [Child Tax Credit Calculator](/us/taxes/child-tax-credit-calculator)

FAQ (10)

Why do I get a refund from the IRS?

A refund usually means you had more federal withholding (and/or refundable credits) than your final federal tax liability. The IRS is returning the overpayment.

Is a bigger refund always better?

Not necessarily. A large refund can mean you over‑withheld and effectively gave the IRS an interest‑free loan. Many people prefer accurate withholding and a smaller refund or break‑even.

What should I enter as ‘withholding’?

Use your federal income tax withheld from pay stubs or W‑2 (Box 2). If you don’t have final numbers yet, use year‑to‑date withholding from your latest pay stub.

Does this include state taxes?

No. This estimator focuses on federal tax only. State refunds/owed can differ significantly depending on where you live.

What income should I use if I have multiple jobs?

Add the expected W‑2 wages from all jobs and total federal withholding from all paychecks. The IRS taxes combined income under your filing status.

What’s the difference between standard and itemized deductions?

Standard deduction is a fixed amount by filing status. Itemized deductions are your eligible expenses (e.g., mortgage interest, SALT, charitable donations). You generally choose whichever is higher.

Are credits the same as deductions?

No. Deductions reduce taxable income. Credits reduce tax directly (some are refundable and can increase your refund even if your tax is already zero).

Why is my estimated refund different from my tax software?

Tax software includes more rules, forms, phaseouts, and state impacts. This tool is a planning estimator, so differences are expected—especially with multiple credits and deductions.

Can I use this for 2024 and 2025?

Yes. Select the tax year and filing status. The estimator uses year‑specific standard deductions and federal brackets.

How do I reduce the chance of owing next year?

Track year‑to‑date withholding vs estimated tax and adjust your W‑4 if needed. A good goal is to get close to break‑even (small refund or small amount owed).

Do bonuses affect my refund?

They can. Bonuses are often withheld at different rates than regular pay, which can increase or decrease your year‑end refund depending on your total tax and withholding.

What if I changed jobs mid‑year?

Combine wages and withholding from all jobs. Job switches can cause under‑withholding if each employer withholds as if it’s your only job.

Does this estimator include IRS underpayment penalties?

No. It estimates refund/owed based on tax and payments, but penalties depend on timing and safe‑harbor rules. If you’re close to owing a lot, consider adjusting withholding ASAP.

Can I use this if I’m self‑employed (1099)?

Partially. Enter your estimated net income as ‘other income’ and any estimated payments as part of ‘withholding’ (as a proxy). Self‑employment tax and many deductions aren’t modeled here, so treat results as rough planning only.